Technical View: Bulls are finding it very difficult to regain control of Dalal Street given the continuous selling pressure during the last week. Nifty 50 has broken its upward sloping trendline. The index has fallen slightly below the 50-week EMA (exponential moving average of 23,442). Along with this, there is a negative trend in momentum indicators. These are indicating further weakness. Moreover, the 10-day EMA line is on the verge of breaking below the 200-day EMA. If this happens, selling pressure may increase further. Experts say that if the index remains below the 50-week EMA, the first target will be the November low of 23,263. After that it will be 22,800. This level will act as the next support. However, if this holds, a recovery towards 23,500-23,700 range can be expected in the upcoming sessions.
Nifty 50 opened higher and made several attempts to reach 23,600 amid volatility, but failed. The index ultimately closed down 95 points at 23,432. This formed a bearish candlestick pattern on the daily chart. In this, lower high formation continued to form for the sixth consecutive session.
On the weekly time frame, the index was down 2.4%. This wiped out two weeks of gains. This created a long bearish candlestick pattern. At the same time, the decline in momentum indicators is indicating further weakness.
How could Nifty move next week?
Nagaraj Shetty of HDFC Securities According to, Nifty is currently seen inside a converging triangle on the daily chart. It is now attempting a negative breakout at the lower end of the triangle.
“Now the next lower support to keep an eye on is around 23,260-23,000 levels. Immediate resistance is seen at 23,600 levels,” he said.
Weekly options data indicates that Nifty may see support at 23,000 and resistance at 23,800 in the near term.
There is pressure from upper levels in the market on the last day of the trading week, yet experts bet on these 4 stocks for earnings.
How can Bank Nifty move next week?
Bank Nifty also witnessed a lower high formation for the sixth consecutive day. After decisively breaking its support trendline, it formed a long bearish candlestick pattern on the daily timeframe. The index fell 769 points (1.55%) to 48,734. This is its lowest closing level since June 4.
On the weekly chart, the index formed a big bearish candlestick pattern. There was a decline of 4.42%. This is the biggest fall since the week ending December 20, 2024, indicating weakness.
Amol Athawale of Kotak Securities “Its short-term formation is weak. A pullback rally is possible only after a decisive break above 49,500,” it said.
According to him, if this level is crossed, the index may bounce back to the range of 50,000-50,200. On the contrary, “as long as it is trading below 49,600, the sentiment is likely to remain weak. On the downside, it is looking for support at 48,300 and 48,000 for traders.”
Meanwhile, India VIX, the volatility index, rose 1.76% to 14.92. This seems to be in favor of the bears. For the week, it appeared to be up 10.16%.
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