Share Market: Christmas festival has arrived. But will there be a Christmas rally in the stock market this time or not? This remains a big question. The stock market has shown some bullish signs on both days of this week, which has created some hope among investors. But would it be right to bet on this hope? Let us tell you that the rise in the stock market between Christmas and New Year is called Christmas rally. Many people also call it Santa Claus Rally. If we look at the data of the last few years, there has been a rise in Sensex and Nifty most of the time during the month of December. But this time the market remains under pressure due to weak quarterly results and continuous selling by foreign investors (FIIs).
Last year in 2023, during the month of December, there was a strong rise of about 8 percent in Nifty. However, market experts are not looking very positive about whether such a rise will happen this time. Nifty has currently gone into the correction zone. It touched its all-time high of 26,277 on September 27. Since then the index has fallen by about 10%. So far this month in December, the index has declined by 0.34 percent. In such a situation, the possibility of Christmas rally in Indian markets seems less this year. Whereas before this, during the last two years, the markets had closed in the green in the last week.
Vikas Jain, Research Head, Reliance Securities, said that in 2022 and 2023, there was an increase of 1.8 to 2 percent in the last week of December. However, this time due to the volatility seen in the market and monthly expiry, the possibility of such a rise is less. Vikas Jain said that the 200-day moving average of Nifty is currently around 23,800. If the index protects this level and closes above 24,000, then only we can see a bounce.
Whitespace Alpha CEO and fund manager Puneet Sharma rejected the concept of Christmas rally. He said that the trend of Crismal Rally is visible in the markets of western countries and it cannot be applied to India. It is also clear from the Sensex and Nifty data of the last 5 years that there is no clear annual trend of increase during Christmas. Puneet Sharma said that even if there was a rise in the market during this period, macroeconomic and global factors were working behind it, and not the effect of Christmas festival.
Why the concept of Christmas rally does not work well in India. There are some reasons behind this also. There is no long holiday during Christmas in Indian market. Due to this, trading activities in the market remain stable like normal days and momentum remains in it.
However, Yashovardhan Khemka of Abans Holdings has a different opinion. He believes that there is still scope for growth in the market. He said that there has been a lot of correction in Nifty recently and Nifty is now in the consolidation phase, setting the stage for a possible breakout. He said that Nifty has given positive returns in 4 out of the last 5 years.
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