Technical View: Nifty started the new year of 2025 on a positive note. The index climbed above the 200-day EMA (exponential moving average of 23,700) today. This today on January 1 extended the previous day’s recovery further. However, the 200-day SMA (Simple Moving Average around level 23,900) is another important level. This level needs to be cleared and held above for a strong rally. If the index manages to sustain above 23,900, the zone of 24,000-24,300 will be the next level to watch for higher gains. However, experts said that if the index remains below 23,900, consolidation may continue with support at 23,500.
Nifty opened with a decline and corrected to 23,563. But in the morning itself, a rapid recovery was seen. It increased by 98 points and closed at 23,743. The index recovered 180 points from its day’s low. This formed a bullish candlestick pattern with a higher high-higher low formation on the daily chart.
How can Nifty move tomorrow, Thursday, January 2?
According to Shrikant Chauhan of Kotak Securities, technically, after a short-term correction, the index has formed a reversal pattern, which looks largely positive.
He mentioned that 23,550 will act as a key support zone. Above this level the market can go up to 23,900-24,000. On the other hand, if it falls below 23,550, the bullish trend may weaken. He advised that below this level, traders may prefer to exit their long positions.
According to Weekly Options data, the short term trading range for Nifty is expected to be between 23,500-24,100.
How can Bank Nifty move tomorrow on Thursday, January 2?
Bank Nifty almost touched 200-day EMA (50,482) in the morning. But later compensated for the losses. With this it went up by 200 points and closed at 51,061 above 51,000 points. The index showed a recovery of 575 points from its day’s low. It formed a bullish candlestick pattern with long upper and lower shadows on the daily time frame. This pattern looks like a high wave candlestick structure. This pattern is indicating volatility.
The banking index defended both the 200-day EMA and SMA. Along with this, it also defended the upward sloping support trendline on closing basis. This looks positive in the near term. However, unless the index trades below all other major moving averages (10, 20, 50, and 100-day EMAs), the overall trend may remain bearish.
Chandan Tapadia of Motilal Oswal said, “Unless Bank Nifty remains below 51,350 zone, weakness can be seen till 50,500, then 50,250 level. In this, upward resistance can be seen at 51,350, then 51,650 zone.” “
Meanwhile, the volatility index, India VIX, continued to be in an uptrend. It increased by 0.42 percent and closed at 14.5. This trend is indicating bulls to maintain caution.
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