India VIX: The India VIX index, which measures near-term market volatility, hit a six-month high intra-day today. This is indicating increasing bearish sentiment among investors. India VIX jumped to 17.45 intra-day today, which is a record high since August 2024. This year it has strengthened by about 20 percent. Market experts while talking to Moneycontrol said that since August it was moving up and down in the range of 12 and 17 and this was indicating nervousness in the market regarding the outlook of Nifty in the next 30 days.
What do market experts say?
Akshay Chinchalkar, research head of Axis Securities, says that this panic is due to uncertainty over tariff related announcements from US President Donald Trump. He said that most people believed that Trump would announce tariffs on China’s exports as soon as he came to power, but he did not do so on the first day after becoming President. Due to this, Chinese stocks jumped the most in Asia today.
Chandan Taparia, Head of Derivatives and Technicals, Motilal Oswal, says that rising India Vicks means sell on rally and also shows increasing volatility in the market.
What is the future trend?
Akshay says that if we talk in technical terms, till Nifty does not cross 23,472, the market will remain in control of the bears. He has expressed apprehension that the market is trying to create a bearish flag formation and if the bears succeed, they may pull Nifty to 22,800 in the near term.
According to Chandan, India Vix may move towards 18-21, which means volatility may increase further and panic may increase. Since the budget is about to be presented, there is a lot of volatility in the market.
Choice Broking’s derivatives analyst Hardik Matalia says that if India Vix moves towards 21, then strong selling pressure may be seen in the market and Nifty may fall in the range of 22,800–22,500. He says that due to Trump’s policy uncertainty, rise in dollar index and weak results of companies, the sentiment has been shocked and due to this, selling pressure is visible.
Tariff War: Chinese stocks rose sharply on this decision of Trump, these ran up at the fastest speed in Asia
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