The shine of gold is not going to fade any time soon. The outlook remains strong and it may create new records on Dhanteras this year. Experts believe that the ongoing global economic changes and expectations of further cuts in interest rates are maintaining the momentum of gold. Gold has seen an increase of almost 50 percent in the year 2025.
On the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), gold prices for gold contracts for delivery in December touched Rs 1,22,284 per 10 grams last week. The reason for this was not only domestic factors but also global factors. According to Ajit Mishra, Senior Vice President (Research), Religare Broking Ltd., “The rally was driven by global economic uncertainty, geopolitical tensions and rising expectations of interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve. The weaker US dollar made gold more affordable for investors investing in other currencies, which further boosted demand.”
Another factor is that central banks around the world are continuously buying gold. Many countries are diversifying their reserves. Due to this, the official purchase of gold has reached the highest level in several decades. According to Vandana Bharti, Head of Commodity Research at SMC Global Securities, “Despite record high prices, gold prices will remain high due to strong buying by central banks and ETFs, expectations of interest rate cuts and declining confidence in fiat currencies.” Fiat currency means the currency which the government declares as legal tender. Like- Rupee in India, Dollar in America.
Where will you sleep on Dhanteras?
Even though optimism about gold remains strong, experts do not expect it to cross the Rs 1.5 lakh mark this festive season. Bharti expects gold to trade between Rs 1,20,000 to Rs 1,30,000 per 10 grams this Dhanteras. The likely target is $4,150-4,250 an ounce.” Ajit Mishra says, “Concerns about persistent inflation are prompting investors to view gold as a reliable store of value. However, unless there is a major shock like a currency crisis or serious geopolitical turmoil, gold is unlikely to cross the Rs 1,50,000 level this Dhanteras.” Gold may trade between Rs 1,26,000 and Rs 1,28,000 per 10 grams in the near future.
It may go up to Rs 1.5 lakh in 2026
Analysts expect the rise in gold prices to continue through 2026, especially if global interest rates start falling and inflation remains stable. Central banks’ policies, geopolitical risks and currency movements will remain the major factors determining the future direction of gold. Renisha Chainani, Research Head, Augmont, says, “If the current macro trends continue, gold could potentially reach Rs 1.5 lakh per 10 grams by mid-to-end of 2026. This rally will be driven by continued buying by central banks, persistent geopolitical tensions and weak global growth due to rate cuts by major central banks.”
The weak US dollar and persistent inflationary pressure will further increase investor demand for safe investment assets. In India, seasonal demand and wedding-related demand, weak rupee and high import duty will push up domestic gold prices. According to Chainani, the long-term structural shift towards gold-based investment instruments will also boost this rally. Vandana Bharti also believes that gold can reach Rs 1,50,000 by the beginning of 2026.
Investment increased in gold ETF
Amid volatile stock markets and volatile bond yields, investors are making fresh investments in gold, considered a safe asset, through exchange-traded funds (ETFs). According to the World Gold Council (WGC), there was a net investment of $ 902 million in Indian gold ETFs in September 2025, an increase of 285 percent over August. Around the world, $17.3 billion was invested in gold ETFs. According to data from the Association of Mutual Funds in India, investment in gold ETFs reached Rs 8363 crore in September. This is 282 percent more than the investment of Rs 2190 crore in August. Assets under management under gold ETFs in India now stand at over Rs 90,000 crore.