Dalal Street: Last week the market saw the biggest weekly decline since June 2022. During this period, the 30-share BSE Sensex fell by 4091.53 points or 4.98 percent. The week started with the announcement of interest rates by the US central bank Federal Reserve. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 0.25 percent, but indicated only two cuts in interest rates in 2025, due to which market sentiment weakened.
Meanwhile, experts now believe that the decline in the stock market may continue further. The market will keep an eye on the trend of FII flows in the next holiday week. The direction of local stock markets will be decided by global trends this week. Analysts have expressed their opinion that there is no major event on the domestic front in this week of short trading session. In such a situation, market participants will keep an eye on global indicators.
What is the opinion of experts
Siddharth Khemka, Head-Research, Wealth Management at Motilal Oswal Financial Services said, “Indian markets are expected to remain subdued. Global markets are expected to remain closed for 2-3 days with the approaching festive season and domestic holiday on December 25. “Because market activity is expected to be less next week.” The market will remain closed on 25th December due to Christmas.
global economic data
Globally, investors will keep an eye on monthly durable goods orders, new home sales and weekly jobs data from the US, while the United Kingdom will unveil its GDP and current account numbers for the September quarter. Apart from this, the recent monetary policy of the Bank of Japan, unemployment rate, retail sales and construction orders from Japan will also be monitored.
Domestic Economic Data
On the domestic front, there will be no major update in terms of data except for foreign exchange reserves for the week ended December 20, which will be released on December 27. Foreign exchange reserves have been declining since the last week of September, falling by nearly $2 billion to $652.87 billion in the week ended December 13 (lowest level in nearly six months), while reaching their record high on September 27. $52 billion less than $704.89 billion.
The market will also keep an eye on FII and DII activity, although globally there will be a slight decline in volumes for a few weeks due to the year-end and Christmas holiday season. Last week, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) changed their strategy where they switched from buying to selling. This is due to the strengthening of the US dollar and increase in bond yields, which was due to the Federal Reserve’s new policy related to interest rates. These factors had a negative impact on the market and caused weakness in the market.
oil prices
Last week, Brent crude oil prices fell by 2.08% to $72.94 per barrel. This decline remained below all major moving averages, which is a bearish signal. Experts believe that the outlook for oil prices for 2025 is also weak. According to him, a rise in prices is possible only if there is an increase in geopolitical tensions. For India, which is a net oil importer, low oil prices are beneficial as it reduces import costs and helps economic stability.
In the week starting from December 23, investors will have the opportunity to invest money in 3 new IPOs. Of these, 1 is from mainboard segment and the remaining 2 are from IPO, SME segment. Apart from this, there will be an opportunity to invest money in 9 already opened IPOs in the new week. As far as listing is concerned, 8 companies are going to make their debut in the stock market in the new starting week. This week three companies Unimech Aerospace, Solar91 Cleantech and Anya Polytech & Fertilizers are coming with their IPO.
According to Amol Athawale, VP- Technical Research, Kotak Securities, “The weekly chart has formed a long bearish candle and after a long time, Nifty closed below the 200-day SMA, which is largely negative. We believe that As long as Nifty remains below 200-day SMA or 23800/78300, the weak sentiment is likely to continue below this level. The market may slip to 23400-23200/77500-77000.”
“On the other hand, if it climbs above 23800/78300, the pullback formation is likely to continue till 24000/80000. There could be further upside, taking the market towards 24200/80600,” he said.
corporate action
Major corporate actions taking place in the coming week are as follows:
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