After several consecutive days of decline, are you excited about the market closing in the green on January 14? If yes, then it would be good for you to know that the market sentiment has not changed yet. Green-Portfolio co-founder Divam Sharma has said that the market may fall by another 5-7 percent till the budget. Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman will present the Union Budget on 1 February. The stock market decline started in October 2024. Since then the market has been continuously falling.
Sharma said that the Union Budget is being closely monitored. If railways, infra and defense are ignored in the budget, then the prices of shares of these sectors may fall by 30-40 percent. Sharma, who has 15 years of experience in the world of investment, says that in the current market situation, investors need to focus on shares of telecom, pharma, auto and packaging companies. He said that there are good possibilities of growth in these sectors.
There will be pressure on the stock market for the time being
Regarding the future direction of the market, he said that there will be pressure on the market for now. Rising crude prices and Donald Trump becoming President in America may have an impact on the market. There will be a special focus on what kind of policy Trump adopts regarding India. The Union Budget will come after a few weeks. This is the biggest event for the economy and stock market. There may be another 5-7 percent correction in the market till the budget.
Keeping an eye on the government’s capital expenditure target
Sharma said that a close eye is being kept on the government’s capital expenditure target in the Union Budget. The government can take measures to increase consumption in the Union Budget. There are signs of decline in consumption. Consumption is weak especially in rural areas. On the other hand, the debt burden on families is increasing. It was Rs 77 lakh crore in 2021, which increased to Rs 120 lakh crore in 2024. This is 43 percent of GDP. Inflation has decreased, but it is still high.
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Pre-budget rally is missing this time
Generally, a pre-budget rally is seen in the market before the budget. But, this time this rally is not visible. The market is taking one step forward after taking four steps back. Due to this, the sentiment of investors seems quite weak. People are also being careful in spending. The wait for recovery in the market is getting longer.