Technical View: Nifty 50 did not get any relief today even on the first trading day of the week. After falling by 2.4 percent last week, it fell by 1.5 percent on January 13. The index has decisively broken the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level after slipping below the November low of 23,260. This is indicating further weakness. According to all technical indicators including momentum and moving averages, bears maintain strong control over Dalal Street. India VIX, a gauge of market volatility, reached its highest level in seven weeks. Due to this, experts estimate that the benchmark Nifty may continue its decline towards 22,800. After this, it may slip to 22,350 (78.6% Fibonacci retracement level).
However, according to market analysts, if there is a bounce-back due to short-covering, then immediate resistance may be seen around 23,350. After that there is a possibility of resistance around 23,600.
Factors increasing selling in the market
Many factors were responsible for the selling pressure in the market. These include a rise in the US dollar index, weakness in the Indian rupee, continued selling by FIIs (foreign institutional investors), rising oil prices and caution ahead of the arrival of Donald Trump as the US President next week.
Nifty opened more than 200 points lower at 23,195 today and remained under pressure throughout the session. The market ended with a loss of 346 points (1.47 percent) at 23,086, with above average volumes. The index formed a bearish candlestick pattern on the daily chart. Due to this, the trend of lower highs continued for the seventh consecutive session. Negative trend was seen in momentum indicators.
From a technical perspective, this pattern signals a decisive downside breakout from the Symmetrical Triangle pattern. This pattern indicates weakness in strength to initiate a rebound in the index. Immediate support level at 23,260 has been broken in Nifty. The market is now ready to test lower levels.
There is an outcry in the market, yet the giants bet on LIC, JSPL, Metropolis Health, Mastech, know the target price
How could Nifty move on Tuesday, January 14?
Nagaraj Shetty of HDFC Securities According to, “The underlying trend of Nifty remains weak. Nifty is moving towards the next lower support level around 22,800-22,700 levels. Any pullback till 23,350 will be a sell-on-rise move,” he said. There may be an opportunity.”
According to weekly options data, the index may trade in the range of 22,500-24,000 in the upcoming sessions.
How can Bank Nifty move on Tuesday, January 14?
Bank Nifty also opened with a big fall today. At the end of the market, it fell 693 points (1.42 percent) and closed at 48,041. It formed a bearish candlestick pattern with a long upper tick on the daily timeframe. Which is indicating lack of demand at a high level. The index is reaching the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level at 47,870. Given the weakness across all technical indicators, a decisive break below this level could send the index falling to June lows near 46,000.
Motilal Oswal’s Chandan Tapadia Said, “As long as the banking index remains below 48,500 zone, the weakness in it can increase till 47,500. After this, it can increase further down to the level of 47,250. On the other hand, upward resistance is visible at the level of 48,250. After that “Resistance can be seen in the zone of 48,500.”
Meanwhile, India VIX, or fear index, rose 7.26 per cent to 16 points. This is the highest closing level since November 22, 2024. This has increased the challenges for the bulls.
(Disclaimer: The views and investment advice expressed on Moneycontrol.com are the personal views and opinions of investment experts. Moneycontrol advises users to consult certified experts before taking any investment decision.)