Market Strategy: Talking about further market movements and outlook Anuj Singhal, Managing Editor of CNBC-Awaaz Said that the stock market is now behaving like a bear market. In a bear market, stocks fall on good and bad news. The market is down despite good news like the US economy is strong. A strong economy means fewer cuts in interest rates. Bear markets are good times for investors. Timing the bottom in bear markets is costly.
Nifty can go down by 500 points from every possible bottom. It looks like we are moving towards 21,800-22,000. On Friday it was said that Bank Nifty is moving towards 48,500. If Bank Nifty does not stop at 48,000 then 46,000 is also possible. As a trader, respect the screen. If there is money to be made in short then definitely do it.
Market: guess what
Anuj Singhal said that now the market is falling due to sentiment. Selling by FIIs continues but not so much. FIIs sold just `2,255 crore on Friday. Against that, DIIs bought `3,962 cr. Despite this, Bank Nifty fell by 800 points. Different pain is visible in midcap, smallcap. The whole week Adv/Dec was very bad. On Friday the market breadth was 1:6. In the last 1 week we also saw a market breadth of 1:9. Retail and HNI sentiments are currently at their lowest levels since Covid.
He further said that even the best portfolios are now down 20-40%. Just saying that everything will be fine is not enough. There is a lot of loss in the retail portfolio at this time.
Market: How will the mood change?
The market needs a tonic at this time. Now the budget seems to be the biggest trigger. There is a need to do something big in the budget. There is slowdown in the economy, it is necessary to speed it up. To some extent, there was bubble in midcap and small cap also. This bubble has now burst. Now there is a need to be more selective from here. There is plenty of money on the sidelines, but that alone will not make the bottom. If the car’s petrol is leaking, no matter how much oil you add, it is of no use. Sentiment can be improved in two ways. Either taxes should be reduced or the tax money should be injected into the economy. There is no use in complaining to FIIs. FIIs have not taken a contract to inject money every year.
How far can you fall?
Anuj Singhal said that the starting point of the rally is the closing level of 21,884 on June 4. From there there was a rally of 4,332 points to 26,216. The closing level on September 26 was 26,216 i.e. there was a rally of 4,332 points in 3.5 months. From here we have now fallen 2,785 points. Now we will test the November lows. If the November lows are not survived then the path to 22,000 will open. Short covering will also be vigorous at times. But the bear will not be afraid of small short coverings.
strategy on nifty
Anuj Singhal said that the most important support is at 23,250-23,350 (low level of November). There is no support below 23,250. If Nifty slips below 23,250 then selling pressure will increase a lot. The market is going through the final phase of selling. The last round of selling is usually the most brutal. It is meaningless to talk about resistance in such a gap down. To regain confidence, Nifty needs to close at its peak for 2-3 days. Whenever the rally fails, the only trade is to sell and trail the stop loss to 23,500 on a positional short on closing basis.
strategy on nifty bank
While giving his opinion on Bank Nifty, Anuj Singhal said that Nifty Bank is now very weak on the chart. There is no visible support till 47,500. Don’t make the mistake of falling on a falling knife. In between this, short covering moves will continue to be visible. No rally is credible unless 50,000 is achieved. Especially intraday shorting is also difficult.
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